Wow, this one's gonna be close.
The official Kenpom Prediction is 84-83, Wake Forest wins.
My formula now makes a very slight adjustment to how I think the data should be used, but still puts Wake Forest as the 84-83 victor, in 85 possessions.
Overtime is actually very difficult for two teams to achieve, since it requires a lot of things to happen just the right way. On average, the team who ends up doing the slightly better job, (or even just the one who wins the tip-off) will win in regulation by 1 more often than going into overtime. That being said, if the game DOES go into overtime, my heart sets the final score at 96-94 UNC.
The thing most likely to make or break this game is UNC's defense, with a standard deviation of 15.19 points/100 possessions (comparing actual and expected values). Their lackluster defense (lackluster compared to the other top teams) can be noted for also being difficult to predict: it is often times much better and much worse than predicted.
The percent chance of winning this game is going to be close, but I'll give you what my formula spits out anyways:
Chance that North Carolina can 1/2 make up for their disadvantage:
Chance that Wake Forest can 1/2 cough up their advantage:
Which, through all samples gives us:
Wake Forest - 52%
North Carolina - 48%
Just for fun, here's my adjusted predicted score at different paces:
@ 75 possessions: WFU-74, UNC-73
@ 80 possessions: WFU-79, UNC-78
@ 90 possessions: WFU-89, UNC-88
@ 95 possessions: WFU-94, UNC-93
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