Using my new estimate for playoff minutes and the updated ridge +/- numbers, I have simulated the NBA playoffs WITH and WITHOUT Derrick Rose (just for fun).
Making the Bulls worse by 1.33 points per 100 possessions hurts the Bulls' chances of making the finals by 10.8%, gives the Magic an 8.1% better chance of making the Semis, and so forth (all these are documented in the huge link above).
This obviously does not take into account matchup differences, Rose's "true" value (which I am just estimating), etc.
EDIT: Next "without" simulation is my NBA Finals MVP: Pau Gasol.
- ► 2012 (19)
- ▼ April (4)
- ► 2010 (25)