|"The Nation's Best Point Guard" apparently.|
All teams worse than #27 were given a simple "#40" as a placeholder . I then compared each of these team's rankings to my own ranking system, which is very similar to Ken Pomeroy's...I can just fiddle with it as I please :). From this, it's pretty easy to see that teams that have won a lot of close games are overrated and vice versa (if you trust us stat-geeks on the principle of 'luck').
To convert Luck (Win% - Expected Win%) to ranking deviation (Poll rank - my rank), I found the following easy equation:
Expected Ranking Deviation = 140 * Luck% - 0.38
So for each conference, I found the average luck of my top 49 (I stopped at 49 because that's where Murray is ranked) and found the following. I split the rankings into three categories
-Murray State (the only OVC team here, and the most overrated team in the country)
-Conferences (with at least 2 listed teams in the poll)
-Other Conferences (the total of each of the conferences with one bid)
|#||Top 40 Avg Luck|
Then I used the Expected Ranking Deviation formula to come up with each 'conference's average expected ranking deviation:
Then I simply subtracted each team's Expected Ranking Difference from their Actual Ranking Difference to give us an estimate of conference bias. The results are pretty intuitive:
|#||Top 40 Luck||ExpRkDiff||ActualRkDiff||Bias|
The only real surprise to my eyes is the Big 12 having a bias of -2.3. Murray State is overrated by their ridiculously easy schedule which they haven't beaten to a pulp. The only four other overrateds are the rest of the power conferences minus the Pac-12, who is still in "recovery mode."