Free Agency Ratings (So Far)
Little math problem. I'll fix it soon.
EDIT: I have now switched these to being based on a much more accurate player rating, RAPM via http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com
I've made Free Agency ratings for each signing and team. These ratings are based on a few things:
First, Production ($). This refers to the estimated value of a player's Wins Above Replacement, which is based off my limited, but useful SPR rating. The basic math (which is somewhat based on the CBA) is roughly: $1.5 million x WARP + $1 million = Production $.
Some issues with this are:
1) A player's WARP will be diminished if they are injured
2) SPR ratings are not great at measuring defense
The latter I don't have a quick fix for. The former, I made a quick adjustment to. A player's initial value is multiplied up to 68*** games (i.e. if a player's production was $1 million and they played 34 games, their injury-adjusted production would be $2 million). If they played more than 68 games, they got full credit for that # of games played.
Here are the best deals so far, followed by each team's gained/lost value (measured by the "Difference" column in the first table).
*Please note that this does not include any player whose terms are not listed on Basketball Reference's free agency tracker (I know Manu, for example, isn't on here)*
***I used the Excel solver and asked it what standard # of games most accurately reflects money earned in the NBA. This was done by running the following math on each player-season:
2012 Raw Production $
-
(x / Games Played) * 2012 Raw Production $
=
Difference
Solver minimized this difference, and came up with about 68 games.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment