For all your fancy-pants statistical needs.
Praise for The Basketball Distribution:
"...confusing." - CBS
"...quite the pun master." - ESPN
Little math problem. I'll fix it soon.
EDIT: I have now switched these to being based on a much more accurate player rating, RAPM via http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com
I've made Free Agency ratings for each signing and team. These ratings are based on a few things:
First, Production ($). This refers to the estimated value of a player's Wins Above Replacement, which is based off my limited, but useful SPR rating. The basic math (which is somewhat based on the CBA) is roughly: $1.5 million x WARP + $1 million = Production $.
Some issues with this are:
1) A player's WARP will be diminished if they are injured
2) SPR ratings are not great at measuring defense
The latter I don't have a quick fix for. The former, I made a quick adjustment to. A player's initial value is multiplied up to 68*** games (i.e. if a player's production was $1 million and they played 34 games, their injury-adjusted production would be $2 million). If they played more than 68 games, they got full credit for that # of games played.
Here are the best deals so far, followed by each team's gained/lost value (measured by the "Difference" column in the first table).
*Please note that this does not include any player whose terms are not listed on Basketball Reference's free agency tracker (I know Manu, for example, isn't on here)*
Player | OTm | NTm | 2012 Injury-Adjusted Production ($) | Free Agency Signed $ / Year | Diff |
|---|
Paul Millsap | UTA | ATL | 21533840.13 | 9500000 | 12033840.13 |
Andre Iguodala | DEN | GSW | 21350126.84 | 12000000 | 9350126.84 |
Jose Calderon | DET | DAL | 16254169.95 | 7250000 | 9004169.954 |
Al-Farouq Aminu | NOP | NOP | 11022611.33 | 3700000 | 7322611.329 |
Devin Harris | ATL | DAL | 8802482.295 | 3000000 | 5802482.295 |
Nikola Pekovic | MIN | MIN | 11672940.33 | 6046500 | 5626440.333 |
Chris Paul | LAC | LAC | 26762960.65 | 21400000 | 5362960.654 |
Matt Barnes | LAC | LAC | 9069688.566 | 3833333.333 | 5236355.233 |
David West | IND | IND | 17096725.7 | 12000000 | 5096725.699 |
Tiago Splitter | SAS | SAS | 13889325.24 | 9000000 | 4889325.242 |
J.R. Smith | NYK | NYK | 10850257.13 | 6175000 | 4675257.135 |
Tony Allen | MEM | MEM | 9387290.204 | 5000000 | 4387290.204 |
Mike Dunleavy | MIL | CHI | 7280329.761 | 3000000 | 4280329.761 |
Josh Smith | ATL | DET | 17765109.74 | 13500000 | 4265109.742 |
Mario Chalmers | MIA | MIA | 8088888.511 | 4000000 | 4088888.511 |
Kyle Korver | ATL | ATL | 9485217.163 | 6000000 | 3485217.163 |
Pablo Prigioni | NYK | NYK | 5281693.116 | 2000000 | 3281693.116 |
Josh McRoberts | CHA | CHA | 5925759.649 | 2750000 | 3175759.649 |
Dorell Wright | PHI | POR | 6119130.344 | 3000000 | 3119130.344 |
Carlos Delfino | HOU | MIL | 6214626.451 | 3250000 | 2964626.451 |
Darren Collison | DAL | LAC | 4815418.725 | 1900000 | 2915418.725 |
Francisco Garcia | HOU | HOU | 3729013.579 | 1300000 | 2429013.579 |
Dwight Howard | LAL | HOU | 24287664.47 | 22000000 | 2287664.472 |
Omri Casspi | CLE | HOU | 2915467.178 | 1300000 | 1615467.178 |
Jodie Meeks | LAL | LAL | 2975483.078 | 1550000 | 1425483.078 |
Chase Budinger | MIN | MIN | 6581692.313 | 5333333.333 | 1248358.98 |
Gerald Henderson | CHA | CHA | 5384280.989 | 4200000 | 1184280.989 |
Greg Stiemsma | MIN | NOP | 3816887.416 | 2700000 | 1116887.416 |
Dante Cunningham | MIN | MIN | 3228831.038 | 2180000 | 1048831.038 |
Rashard Lewis | MIA | MIA | 2397628.53 | 1400000 | 997628.5303 |
C.J. Watson | BRK | IND | 2890695.155 | 2000000 | 890695.1553 |
Kevin Martin | OKC | MIN | 8032773.588 | 7250000 | 782773.5881 |
Wayne Ellington | CLE | DAL | 3254898.303 | 2500000 | 754898.3028 |
Jeff Teague | ATL | MIL | 8603022.747 | 8000000 | 603022.7467 |
Chris Kaman | DAL | LAL | 3606845.656 | 3200000 | 406845.6565 |
Ray Allen | MIA | MIA | 3583235.199 | 3200000 | 383235.1986 |
Zaza Pachulia | ATL | MIL | 5522598.858 | 5333333.333 | 189265.5244 |
O.J. Mayo | DAL | MIL | 8158844.751 | 8000000 | 158844.7507 |
Tyler Hansbrough | IND | IND | 4238255.5 | 4150000 | 88255.5003 |
Jarrett Jack | GSW | CLE | 6290126.604 | 6250000 | 40126.60363 |
Patrick Mills | SAS | SAS | 1076270.931 | 1133950 | -57679.06913 |
Earl Watson | UTA | POR | 1271447.862 | 1400000 | -128552.1381 |
Boris Diaw | SAS | SAS | 4422152.922 | 4702500 | -280347.0777 |
J.J. Hickson | POR | DEN | 4525962.224 | 5000000 | -474037.776 |
Jerryd Bayless | MEM | MEM | 2207495.722 | 3100000 | -892504.278 |
Chris Copeland | NYK | IND | 1847691.034 | 3050000 | -1202308.966 |
Eric Maynor | POR | WAS | 709401.2011 | 2000000 | -1290598.799 |
Aaron Gray | TOR | TOR | 1264898.481 | 2690875 | -1425976.519 |
Al Jefferson | UTA | CHA | 11830947.23 | 13500000 | -1669052.773 |
Ronnie Brewer | OKC | MIN | 3319730.452 | 5000000 | -1680269.548 |
Trevor Ariza | WAS | WAS | 6011169.571 | 7700000 | -1688830.429 |
J.J. Redick | MIL | LAC | 4901608.901 | 6750000 | -1848391.099 |
Randy Foye | UTA | DEN | 721589.5014 | 3000000 | -2278410.499 |
Carl Landry | GSW | SAC | 3529099.084 | 6500000 | -2970900.916 |
Marco Belinelli | CHI | SAS | -596789.6931 | 3000000 | -3596789.693 |
Shawn Marion | DAL | DAL | 5505117.797 | 9316796 | -3811678.203 |
Marvin Williams | UTA | UTA | 3674119.951 | 7500000 | -3825880.049 |
Tyreke Evans | SAC | NOP | 6861293.132 | 11000000 | -4138706.868 |
Emeka Okafor | WAS | WAS | 9848117.628 | 14487500 | -4639382.372 |
Earl Clark | LAL | CLE | -797022.1262 | 4500000 | -5297022.126 |
Charlie Villanueva | DET | DET | 2911016.137 | 8580000 | -5668983.863 |
Richard Jefferson | GSW | UTA | 1526167.7 | 11046000 | -9519832.3 |
Ben Gordon | CHA | CHA | -4652922.605 | 13200000 | -17852922.6 |
Team | Value Change by Not Resigning | Value Change By FA Signing/Resigning | Total |
|---|
GSW | $12,450,606.61 | $9,350,127 | $21,800,733.45 |
LAC | $- | $11,666,344 | $11,666,343.51 |
NYK | $1,202,308.97 | $7,956,950 | $9,159,259.22 |
DAL | $(3,481,109.13) | $11,749,872 | $8,268,763.22 |
CHI | $3,596,789.69 | $4,280,330 | $7,877,119.45 |
MIN | $(1,116,887.42) | $7,026,134 | $5,909,246.97 |
MIA | $- | $5,469,752 | $5,469,752.24 |
IND | $- | $4,873,367 | $4,873,367.39 |
LAL | $3,009,357.65 | $1,832,329 | $4,841,686.39 |
POR | $1,764,636.57 | $2,990,578 | $4,755,214.78 |
ATL | $(10,859,880.31) | $15,519,057 | $4,659,176.98 |
NOP | $- | $4,300,792 | $4,300,791.88 |
MEM | $- | $3,494,786 | $3,494,785.93 |
HOU | $(2,964,626.45) | $6,332,145 | $3,367,518.78 |
MIL | $(2,431,938.66) | $3,915,759 | $1,483,820.81 |
SAC | $4,138,706.87 | -$2,970,901 | $1,167,805.95 |
SAS | $- | $954,509 | $954,509.40 |
TOR | $- | -$1,425,977 | $(1,425,976.52) |
WAS | $- | -$7,618,812 | $(7,618,811.60) |
CLE | $(2,370,365.48) | -$5,256,896 | $(7,627,261.00) |
DET | $(9,004,169.95) | -$1,403,874 | $(10,408,044.07) |
DEN | $(9,350,126.84) | -$2,752,448 | $(12,102,575.11) |
CHA | $- | -$15,161,935 | $(15,161,934.74) |
UTA | $(7,957,824.72) | -$13,345,712 | $(21,303,537.07) |
***I used the Excel solver and asked it what standard # of games most accurately reflects money earned in the NBA. This was done by running the following math on each player-season:
2012 Raw Production $
-
(x / Games Played) * 2012 Raw Production $
=
Difference
Solver minimized this difference, and came up with about 68 games.
